Job growth in Northern Virginia outpaces housing

While location may be the most influential factor determining the value of an individual property, jobs are the most influential factor on the Northern Virginia real estate market, according to local economic and real estate experts. And while not every property sold can enjoy a perfect location, the entire Washington area benefits from the strong employment figures for this region.

"While I can't deny the fact that inventory has increased and prices are not increasing as fast as they were a few months ago, my overall opinion about the real estate market remains positive," says Dr. Stephen Fuller, Director for the Center for Regional Analysis and School of Public Policy at George Mason University. "The reality is that we are seeing job growth in every sector in this area. Two-thirds of all the jobs in the region are being created in Northern Virginia. The annual average so far in 2005 is 80,200 new jobs for the region, which means that 53,000 new jobs were created in Northern Virginia."
"We're predicting 80,000 to close to 90,000 new jobs to be created in the Washington region in 2006, which represents very strong growth," says Priest. "Just to put this in perspective, the modest job growth we saw in 2001 was 10,000 more jobs."

The link between job creation and the housing market is succinctly described by Fuller, who explains that the number of available homes for sale in Northern Virginia does not come close to meeting the demands of employees new to the area.

"In order to house the estimated 53,000 additional workers moving to Northern Virginia each year, we need 35,000 new housing units," says Fuller, a figure based on an estimated 1.5 workers per housing unit. "Right now, we are only halfway there in terms of meeting those needs."

The issue of affordable housing could eventually impact job growth negatively in this area, as companies may begin to turn away from relocating to an area where their employees cannot buy homes or must endure excessively long commutes in order to afford a property.

"If you're looking at the long-term future of this area, the biggest problem is that the housing supply that matches with the demand is not where we want to see it," says Peck. "The major problem is that teachers and policemen cannot buy homes in the areas where they work. One of the reasons for our traffic problems is that everyone has to drive long distances to get to work and to do everything else. We still have a strong job market and that's not shifting yet, but there's a potential for our growth to be limited if no one can live near where they work. I know of at least one company choosing to relocate to North Carolina because of the high cost of housing in the Washington area."

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